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通过对浙、沪、苏邻近 4个地磁观测点的近十年的资料 ,及邻近区域 1 0个地震进行了每日Z分量日变幅加卸载响应比随时间变化和响应比月均值的相关研究。结果表明 :加卸载响应比阈值 P0 ( Z)和响应比月均值 PM( Z)的大小与地震的震级、震中距及异常出现的早晚并非完全呈线性相关 ;当响应比值大于某一阈值时 ,有可能发生一定震级的地震 ;按该方法结果综合分析 ,截止 1 998年 9月底 ,未来 1年左右的时间内在该研究区域或更大范围 (含台湾区域 )有可能发生 6级左右的地震。该方法可作为分析预报手段参与中短期和短临地震趋势判断的一种新方法
Through daily data of nearly 4 geomagnetic observational stations in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu Provinces and 10 adjacent earthquakes, the daily Z component daily unload response ratio changes with time and the response is more than the monthly mean the study. The results show that the magnitude of loading-unloading response ratio threshold (P0.0) and PM (Z) of response ratio are not linearly correlated with the earthquake magnitude, epicenter distance and the early or late occurrence of anomalies. When the response ratio is greater than a certain threshold, According to the comprehensive analysis of the results of this method, as of the end of September 1998, earthquakes of about 6 in the study area or beyond (including the Taiwan area) may occur in the next year or so. This method can be used as a new method of analyzing and forecasting the participation of medium and short-term and short-term earthquakes