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基于复杂网络理论,构建以港口吸引度和港口间海运距离双重因素作用下点权有限的加权网络演化模型。选取29个沿海主要港口2015年相关数据,对比演化网络与现实网络的特征指标数据,验证了模型的有效性,将模型应用于预测2018年沿海港口网络,揭示沿海港口网络未来的演化特征,结果显示,港口之间联系紧密程度有所提高,运输效率进一步提升;所有港口的度值都将不同程度增大,使沿海港口网络的连接度和可达性增大;大部分港口将进入更高层级,港口层级结构将升级;港口网络的无序性进一步增强,港口间规模差异减小,港口规模分布更均匀化,港口之间的相互影响能力将下降;港口网络的负向匹配程度将增大,呈向外辐射的状态,即度值大的港口通过集聚效应成为港口群的增长核心后,将凭借其有利条件发挥扩散效应。
Based on the complex network theory, a weighted network evolution model with limited authority is constructed under the dual factors of port attraction and seaport distance. The relevant data of 29 major coastal ports of China are selected from 2015 to compare the characteristic index data of evolution network and real network to verify the validity of the model. The model is applied to predict the coastal port network in 2018, revealing the evolutionary characteristics of the coastal port network in the future. Shows that the linkages between ports have been enhanced and the transport efficiency has been further enhanced; the degree of all ports will be increased to varying degrees, which will increase the connectivity and accessibility of the coastal port network; and most of the ports will enter higher levels Level, the port structure will be upgraded; the disorder of the port network will be further strengthened, the differences in the size of ports will be lessened, the distribution of ports will be more even, and the mutual influence between ports will decrease. The degree of negative matching of port networks will increase Large and outward radiation state, that is, the great value of the port through the agglomeration effect to become the core of the port group growth, will play by virtue of its favorable conditions of diffusion effect.