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油气储运设施风险是其事故发生概率和事故后果的综合度量,而事故概率和后果的定量评估结果往往是具有不确定性的数据,以确定性风险评估准则为基础的传统风险矩阵法和风险值法显然难以评估油气储运设施风险。为此提出开展油气储运设施事故风险的模糊逻辑推理法,首先,对风险矩阵的概率语言等级和损失语言等级的边界进行定量划分;然后,建立油气储运设施风险矩阵模糊集和模糊逻辑推理规则;最后,通过风险模糊推理运算和模糊风险解模糊化以确定油气储运设施的风险水平。实例应用与分析表明,利用推荐方法可得到较为详尽的风险数据信息,不但风险指数更加清晰,而且其所属风险等级类别也更加明确,评估结果能更好地指导油气储运设施的风险管理。
The risk of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities is a comprehensive measure of the probability of accidents and the consequences of accidents. The quantitative assessment of accident probability and consequence is often the data with uncertainties. The traditional risk matrix method and risk based on deterministic risk assessment criteria Appreciable value method is difficult to assess the risk of oil and gas storage facilities. Therefore, a fuzzy logic reasoning method is proposed to carry out the accident risk of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities. Firstly, the boundary of probabilistic language level and loss language level of risk matrix is quantitatively divided. Then, the risk matrix fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic reasoning of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities are established Finally, the risk level of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities is determined by fuzzy risk reasoning operation and fuzzy risk defuzzification. The application and analysis of the examples show that more detailed risk data can be obtained by using the recommended method. Not only the risk index is clearer, but also the classification of the risk level is more explicit. The evaluation result can better guide the risk management of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities.