针对电力市场环境下水电企业的合同电量确定及计划安排等问题,从水电厂商对预测径流和预测现货电价的风险态度出发,提出以风险价值(VaR)为风险量测方法,构建了考虑径流和电价的不确定性控制风险模型,并基于水电厂商风险控制目标确定年度合约电量。 In order to determine the contracted electricity quantity and plan arrangement of hydropower enterprises under the electricity market environment, this paper proposes a risk measurement method based on the VaR (risk value) as the risk measure, considering the risk attitude of hydropower producers on the prediction of runoff and the spot price. Uncertainty about the price controls the risk model and determines the annual contract capacity based on the hydropower plant’s risk control objectives.