论文部分内容阅读
要论述未来的武器,先要预测今后五十年的军事形势。为了预测今后五十年的军事形势,又必须首先分析在2032年可能出现的政治—军事形势。到2032年,我们将生活在一个真正的多极世界之中。那时至少有一打强国——这些国家人口众多、天然资源丰富、技术先进、军事力量强大。从技术上说,这些国家能够制造核武器、发射弹道导弹,并把卫星送入轨道贫富国家之间的斗争将要加剧,东—西方冲突将由于南—北冲突而扩大。不管“馅饼”变小还是变大,反正有越来越多的国家要求得到他们“那一片陷饼”。这样,国际局势可能变得比今天更为紧张。
To discuss the future weapons, we must first predict the military situation for the next 50 years. In order to predict the military situation for the next five decades, we must first analyze the political-military situation that may emerge in 2032. By 2032 we will live in a truly multipolar world. At that time, there were at least a dozen powerful countries - large populations, rich natural resources, advanced technology and powerful military power. Technically speaking, the struggle between these countries to create nuclear weapons, launch ballistic missiles and send satellites to orbiting rich countries will intensify and East-West conflicts will expand due to the South-North conflict. No matter whether “pie” gets smaller or bigger, more and more countries are asking for their “piece of pie” anyway. In this way, the international situation may become even more tense than it is today.