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副热带及热带海温异常变化对两类厄尔尼诺事件具有一定影响,定量分析热带及北太平洋关键海区海表温度对两类厄尔尼诺事件(尤其是中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件)的不同贡献,对完善两类厄尔尼诺事件预报模型及极端气候预报具有重要意义。本次研究利用海表温度资料,采用旋转经验正交函数分解、功率谱分析、相关分析等方法研究了热带及北太平洋区域海表温度异常变化关键区与两类厄尔尼诺事件的关系。结果表明:1985~2009年热带太平洋海表温度前两个模态的时空分布能够很好地表征两类厄尔尼诺事件发生过程中最大海温变化的时间演变特征。热带及北太平洋海表温度变化最显著的区域主要有四个,分别是赤道中东太平洋、加利福尼亚西南、阿留申群岛和白令海一带。其中阿留申群岛地区与其他海区存在显著的负相关。春季和秋季海温异常变化区域位于赤道中太平洋,夏季和冬季海温异常变化区域位于赤道东太平洋。根据热带及北太平洋海表温度显著变化关键区域与两类厄尔尼诺事件的密切关系,通过回归分析,建立了二者之间的回归方程,得到的结果为进一步研究热带及北太平洋关键海区海温对两类厄尔尼诺事件的影响提供有益的参考。
The changes of the subtropical and tropical SST anomalies have some impact on two El Niño events, and quantitatively analyze the different contributions of the sea surface temperature in the tropical and key North Sea regions to two El Niño events (especially the mid-Pacific El Niño event) Event prediction model and extreme climate prediction are of great significance. In this study, the relationship between two key El Niño events in the key regions of the anomalous sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical and North Pacific was studied by using the sea surface temperature data, rotation empirical orthogonal function decomposition, power spectrum analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that the temporal and spatial distribution of the first two modes of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific from 1985 to 2009 can characterize the temporal evolution of the maximum SST in the two El Niño events well. There are four main areas of tropical and North Pacific changes in sea surface temperature, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, southwestern California, the Aleutian Islands and the Bering Sea. Among them, there are significant negative correlations between the Aleutian Islands and other sea areas. The spring and autumn SST anomalies are located in the central equatorial Pacific. The summer and winter SST anomalies are located in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Based on the close relationship between the two key El Niño events and the significant changes of the sea surface temperature in the tropics and the North Pacific, regression equations were established by regression analysis. The results obtained are for further research on the sea surface temperature in the tropical and key North Pacific sea regions Two kinds of El Niño events provide a useful reference.