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物价波动影响着人们的生产与生活,人们普遍关注中国物价未来的走势。物价波动的长期记忆性是针对物价过去波动过程中所固有规律的研究。本文全面地探讨了中国物价波动的长期趋势、季节趋势、周期趋势以及聚集性的记忆特征,研究对象为居民消费价格、工业品出厂价格和原材料购进价格的三种价格指数,得到了物价波动的主要记忆内容。有关结论对预测未来中国物价走势、加强对物价水平的宏观管理具有一定现实指导意义。
Price fluctuations affect people’s production and life, people generally concerned about the future trend of China’s price. The long-term memory of price volatility is a study of the inherent laws of price volatility in the past. This paper discusses the long-term trend, seasonal trend, cyclical trend and aggregate memory characteristics of China’s price volatility comprehensively. The object of study is the three price indices of consumer price, ex-factory price of industrial products and purchase price of raw materials, The main memory content. Relevant conclusions have some realistic guiding significance for predicting the future price movements in China and strengthening the macro management of price levels.