一、引言对核设施放射性产物释入大气的事故后果的预测,第一个定量过程是关于这些产物的大气弥散,可根据能估算空气中放射性产物浓度和地表沉积活度的模式进行。按照计算模式应是有效的、简便的和计算机上可使用的观点,应用计算模式时应能获得固有的不确定性相容精度的研究结果。这些不确定性一方面是由事故状态本身造成 I. INTRODUCTION The prediction of the consequences of an accidental release of radioactive products from a nuclear facility into the atmosphere, the first of which is about atmospheric dispersion of these products, can be based on a model that can estimate concentrations of radioactive products in the air and surface sediment activity. In accordance with the calculation mode should be effective, easy and computer-usable point of view, the application of the calculation mode should be able to get the inherent uncertainty of the accuracy of the study results. These uncertainties are caused, on the one hand, by the state of the accident itself