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[目的]分析2011年8月21日18:30～19:30期间发生的冰雹天气。[方法]利用NCEP 6 h再分析资料、Micaps资料、FY-2卫星云图资料,对2011年8月21日18:30～19:30期间发生的冰雹天气的天气形势场、冰雹特征气象要素场和卫星云图进行再分析,探讨此次冰雹的天气成因及冰雹云的云图特征,总结如何从实况天气资料及数值预报产品进行防雹天气预警分析。[结果]此次冰雹天气的发生发展过程,高空500 hPa冷涡是背景天气系统,低空850 hPa暖舌和地面风切变是形成强对流冰雹云的必要条件;分析尽早时次的天气图,可以从天气系统的机理方面分析天气的发生原因,并能尽早地发出天气预警;利用数值预报产品分析冰雹特征气象要素场,可以更进一步地分析并精确地预测冰雹发生的概率、时间以及范围;而红外卫星云图对于对流旺盛的冰雹云的监测更准确,特征更明显,可以更直观地预测冰雹天气的发生。[结论]该研究为今后类似的冰雹天气提供防雹预警经验。
[Objective] The hail weather occurred during 18: 30 ~ 19: 30 of August 21, 2011 was analyzed. [Method] The NCEP 6 h reanalysis data, Micaps data and FY-2 satellite image data were used to analyze the weather conditions of hail weather during 18:30 ~ 19:30 on August 21, 2011, And satellite imagery to reanalyze the cause of the hail weather and hail cloud image features, summarizes how to forecast the hailstone weather from the live weather data and numerical forecast products. [Result] The occurrence and development process of hail weather, the upper 500 hPa cold vortex is the background weather system, the lower atmospheric 850 hPa warm tongue and the ground wind shear are the necessary conditions for the formation of strong convective hail cloud; the weather map as soon as possible can be analyzed Analyze the causes of the weather from the mechanism of the weather system and send the weather warning as soon as possible. Using the numerical forecast products to analyze the meteorological element field of the hail characteristics, the probability, time and range of the hail can be further analyzed and accurately predicted. The infrared satellite cloud image is more accurate and more obvious for the convective hail cloud monitoring, which can predict the hail weather more intuitively. [Conclusion] The research provided hail prevention and early warning for similar hail weather in the future.