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借鉴RAINS模型的分析方法和结构思想,建立了预测SO_2排放-控制成本的框架模型。利用RAINS-ASIA模型并结合预测SO_2排放-控制成本的方法对北京市1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年不同设计情景下的SO_2排放量和控制成本进行预测。结果表明:1)北京市SO_2的面源排放量大于点源排放量;2)北京市SO_2点源已得到很大程度消减,面源消减量较点源消减量还存在很大潜力,因此,北京市应将面源作为SO_2污染的重点消减目标,并进一步提出消减排放量的控制方案;3)对于电厂和集中供热部门来说,当前控制战略的减排效果比湿法烟气脱硫控制的减排效果差,同时其减排成本和湿法烟气脱硫控制战略相差很少,因此,对于点源的控制应该优先实施湿法烟气脱硫减排措施。
Draw lessons from RAINS model analysis method and structure idea, set up the frame model that predicts SO2 emission-control cost. Based on the RAINS-ASIA model and the prediction of SO 2 emission-control costs, SO 2 emissions and control costs under different design scenarios of Beijing in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 were predicted. The results show that: 1) the surface source emission of SO 2 in Beijing is larger than the point source emission; 2) the point source of SO 2 in Beijing has been greatly reduced, and the reduction of surface source still has great potential compared with point source reduction; Beijing should regard non-point source as the target of SO2 pollution reduction and further put forward a control plan to reduce emissions; 3) For power plants and district heating departments, the current control strategy has a better emission reduction effect than wet FGD control Of the emission reduction effect is poor, and its emission reduction costs and wet flue gas desulfurization control strategy difference is very small, therefore, for the point source control should give priority to the implementation of wet flue gas desulfurization and emission reduction measures.