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现今“土地财政”成为中国地方经济发展的一个热门话题,它不仅是地方政府取得财政收入的一种方式,也是拉动地方经济发展的一个重要变量。本文通过对地方土地财政与地方经济发展的实证分析,探究出土地财政对地方经济增长的影响系数,在此基础上指出地方过度依赖土地财政在土地财政后期所面临的潜在风险,即经济可持续发展风险、财政金融风险以及社会发展风险。随着土地财政的逐步退出,地方政府应该适时调整经济发展策略,降低对土地财政带动经济发展的依赖程度,提前对可能出现的风险进行防范,实现地方经济社会的可持续发展。
Nowadays, “land finance” has become a hot topic in the development of local economy in China. It is not only a way for local governments to obtain financial revenue, but also an important variable for stimulating the development of local economy. Based on the empirical analysis of the local land finance and local economy development, this paper explores the influence coefficient of the land finance on the local economic growth. Based on this, it points out that the local over-reliance on land finance faces the potential risk in the latter part of the land finance, that is, the economy is sustainable Development risk, financial risk and social development risk. With the gradual withdrawal of land finance, local governments should adjust economic development strategies in a timely manner, reduce dependence on land finance to drive economic development, prevent possible risks in advance and achieve sustainable development of local economy and society.