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趋势冲击是指对于技术增长率的冲击,即技术增长率服从一个随机过程。趋势冲击在新兴市场国家经济周期波动中起着非常重要的作用,由于中国的经济波动特征更为接近新兴市场,因此趋势冲击可能是驱动中国周期波动的重要因素。本文首先构建了一个包含趋势性冲击和暂时性冲击的开放经济RBC模型,模型较好地拟合了中国的大部分经济波动特征;包含政府消费和趋势性冲击的开放经济模型则出现了过度拟合,拟合结果较差。这可能是因为两种冲击存在“叠加效应”。
Trend shocks refer to the impact on the growth rate of technology, that is, the rate of technological growth follows a random process. Trend shocks play a very important role in the volatility of economic cycles in emerging market countries. As China’s economic volatility is closer to emerging markets, the impact of the trend may be an important factor driving cyclical fluctuations in China. In this paper, we first construct an open economy RBC model that includes trend shocks and temporary shocks. The model better fits most of the economic fluctuations in China. The open economy model that includes the impact of government consumption and trend has appeared over-proposed Together, the fitting result is poor. This is probably because of the “stacking effect” of both shocks.