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文章利用G20华盛顿会议提出的评估一国宏观经济失衡的指标体系,对2003~2012年中国总体及内外经济失衡进行测度,结果显示:在内部失衡相对偏高的影响下,中国经济总体失衡依然严重,但自2008年后中国外部失衡正逐步改善,并使总体失衡有所减轻。然而实证检验发现:这一时期中国外部失衡改善仍是一种受金融危机影响的被动调整,其主要来自刺激经济增长情况下中国财政赤字的增加、国内金融深化程度提升、金融危机影响下中国经济增长及进出口增速减慢,中国需在防范外部失衡调整风险和增加实际利益基础上,以内部失衡治理为主,适当控制外部失衡。
Using the index system of assessing a country’s macroeconomic imbalance proposed by the G20 Washington meeting, this paper measures China’s overall and internal and external economic imbalances from 2003 to 2012. The results show that under the influence of relatively high internal imbalances, the overall imbalance in China’s economy remains serious However, since 2008, China’s external imbalances are gradually improving and the general imbalances have been eased. However, the empirical test finds that the improvement of China’s external imbalances in this period is still a passive adjustment affected by the financial crisis. It mainly comes from the increase of China’s fiscal deficit under stimulating economic growth, the deepening of domestic financial deepening, the impact of the financial crisis on China’s economy Growth and slower growth in import and export, China needs to control internal external imbalance appropriately based on prevention of internal adjustment risks and actual benefits.