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供求因素对玉米价格的影响已很清楚,但金融因素和经济因素的作用有待进一步探索。利用2009年1月~2015年10月的月度数据,借助SVAR模型,分析了国内外金融因素对我国玉米现货价格的影响。分析结果表明:在国内玉米供求变化不大的情况下,其价格金融化特征明显,价格波动周期变短、波动幅度增大;人民币实际汇率对其价格的冲击最大,消费者价格指数次之,其他金融因素的影响较小。
The effect of supply and demand on corn prices is well understood, but the role of financial and economic factors remains to be further explored. Using the monthly data from January 2009 to October 2015 and using SVAR model, this paper analyzes the impact of domestic and international financial factors on the spot price of corn in China. The results show that under the condition of little change in domestic supply and demand of maize, the characteristics of financial price are obvious, the cycle of price volatility is shorter and the fluctuation amplitude is larger; the real exchange rate of RMB impact on its price the most, the consumer price index is second, Other financial factors have less impact.