论文部分内容阅读
以博弈论模拟方法为基础,对南水北调中线工程中有关生活用水分配及污染减排所存在的利益冲突进行了模拟仿真分析.以回归分析法来构建博弈各方的利益函数,以经济价值评估法把非货币价值换算为可计算的经济价值,用成本效益分析法比较不同战略下的博弈模拟结果,并且用情景分析来探讨博弈的未来不确定性.近几年的实际观察数据与模拟结果的对比验证了模型的精确性及有效性.博弈模拟结果表明合作博弈虽使某些博弈方利益受损,但所有博弈方却整体受益.结果也表明了污染减排,因为某些博弈方的不愿合作,而导致“囚徒困境” .对未来不同情景的模拟结果显示,即便在最优的情景下,非合作也难以解决缺水区的问题.此博弈方法及其结果也对南水北调中水资源的分配、水价的制定及生态补偿有很大的参考价值.
Based on the game theory simulation method, this paper simulates and analyzes the conflict of interest in the distribution of water use and pollution reduction in the middle route project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and constructs the interest function of each party in the game by regression analysis method, The non-monetary value is converted into a calculable economic value, the cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the game simulation results under different strategies, and the scenario analysis is used to explore the future uncertainty of the game.In recent years, the actual observation data and simulation results The simulation results verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the model.The game simulation results show that although the cooperative game has some interests of the game player damaged, but all the game parties are the overall benefit.Results also show that pollution reduction, because some of the game player is not Is willing to cooperate and lead to “Prisoners’ Dilemma.” Simulation results of different scenarios in the future show that even in the best scenario, non-cooperation is difficult to solve the problem of water-scarce areas.The game method and its results are also in the South-to-North Water Diversion The allocation of water resources, water pricing and ecological compensation have great reference value.