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文章利用1978-2009年的相关数据,Granger因果关系检验中国军费支出对GDP及其结构(消费、投资和净出口)的影响,最后针对结果提出相应的政策建议。分析表明:1.在1%的显著性水平上,中国军费支出没有促进GDP整体、消费和投资的发展,只增加了我国的净出口。2.中国军费支出对净出口的作用最显著,对消费的作用最不显著,而对投资的作用则居中。产生上述作用存在时滞现象,其中对消费影响的时滞最短,对净出口影响的时滞次之,时滞最长的是对投资的影响。
Based on the Granger causality between 1978-2009 and Granger causality test, this paper examines the impact of China’s military expenditure on GDP and its structure (consumption, investment and net exports), and finally puts forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the results. The analysis shows that: 1. At the 1% level of significance, China’s military expenditures did not promote the development of GDP as a whole, consumption and investment, and only increased China’s net exports. 2. China’s military spending has the most significant effect on net exports, its least significant effect on consumption, and its effect on investment. There are time-lag phenomena that have the above-mentioned effects. Among them, the lag of the impact on consumption is the shortest, the lag of the net export impact is the lag, and the longest lag is the impact on investment.