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2012年上半年,我国GDP增长速度自2009年第一季度以来首次低于8%,经济增速减缓,但我国经济总体运行平稳,经济运行呈现出六大亮点。本文在回顾上半年经济走势基础上,分析我国经济增速下滑的原因,分析发现经济增速趋缓是我国转变经济发展方式、进行经济结构调整尤其是房地产调控和外需不足、内需趋缓等多重因素共同作用的结果。文章系统梳理了经济学家对经济增速“破八”后我国是否进入通货紧缩状态的讨论,分析金融危机背景下世界各国通货紧缩历史经验,结合天津市2012年1~6月经济发展状况及特点,提出应对经济增速下滑、预防通货紧缩的相关对策,积极推进经济结构调整,深化重点领域改革,发展实体经济,坚持房地产调控不动摇,进一步实施结构性减税等。
In the first half of 2012, China’s GDP growth rate was below 8% for the first time since the first quarter of 2009, and its economic growth slowed down. However, the overall economic operation of our country has been stable and the economic operation has shown six bright spots. Based on the review of economic trends in the first half of the year, this paper analyzes the reasons for the declining economic growth in our country. It is found that the slowdown of economic growth is the result of many changes in China’s economic development pattern, such as economic restructuring, real estate regulation and control, insufficient external demand and slowing domestic demand The result of the common action of factors. The article systematically reviews economists’ discussions on whether China entered into a deflation after the economic growth rate is exceeded and analyzes the historical experience of deflation in various countries in the world under the financial crisis. Combining with the economic development in Tianjin from January to June, State and characteristics of the economy, put forward countermeasures to deal with the economic slowdown and prevent deflation, actively promote the economic restructuring, deepen the reform in key areas, develop the real economy, maintain the unmanageable real estate regulation and control and further implement the structural tax cuts.