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风暴潮实时预报模型的最大特点是要求计算速度快、计算范围大以及模型通用性和操作方便性。考虑风暴潮与天文潮的耦合作用,基于无结构网格有限体积法建立了二维风暴潮实时预报模型。该模型适合任意复杂形状的计算区域,采用基于OpenMP的并行计算技术,具有计算速度快,计算稳定,通用性好等特点,可用于我国沿海风暴潮实时预报。以杭州湾风暴潮实时预报为例,建立了包括东海、黄海、渤海大范围风暴潮模型,并集成为杭州湾风暴潮实时预报系统,模型参数经10场典型风暴潮及其相应天文潮的率定和验证。应用该模型实时预报了“莫拉克”(0908#)台风暴潮,结果表明,建立的模型能满足风暴潮实时预报的精度和时效性的要求,具有较大的推广应用价值。
The most important feature of the storm surge real-time forecasting model is that it requires fast calculation, large calculation range, as well as versatility and operational convenience. Considering the coupling between storm surge and astronomical tide, a two-dimensional storm surge real-time prediction model is established based on unstructured finite volume method. The model is suitable for the computing area of any complicated shape. It adopts the parallel computing technology based on OpenMP and has the characteristics of fast calculation, stable computing and good universality. It can be used in the real-time forecast of coastal storm surges in China. Taking the real-time forecast of storm surge in Hangzhou Bay as an example, a large-scale storm surge model including the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea was established and integrated into the real-time forecast system of the Hangzhou Bay storm surge. The model parameters were analyzed by 10 typical storm surges and their corresponding astronomical tidal rates Set and verify. The model was used to forecast the typhoon surge of “Morakot” (0908 #) in real time. The results show that the model can meet the requirements of the accuracy and timeliness of the real - time forecast of storm surge and has great value in popularization and application.