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能源经济学家一直致力于研发估算国际贸易中隐含碳排放责任的方法。传统方法之一是EAI假设下单区域投入产出模型。由于我国碳排放系数高于世界平均水平,EAI假设高估进口产品碳排放,故本文改进此方法以更加准确地估算我国国际贸易中隐含碳排放量。新的估计方法分为两步:首先,使用EAI假设和2010投入产出表计算国际贸易中隐含碳排放;其次,修订EAI假设和调整进口隐含碳排放系数,重新估算我国国际贸易中的隐含碳排放。结果显示,国内应承担的碳排放量为59.8亿吨,比EAI假设少了14.4亿吨,国际贸易隐含碳排放量为28.1亿吨。我国作为碳排放的净输出国不仅要呼吁建立新的全球减排责任,还要进行国内能源、经济市场改革,如能源价格改革,改变粗放型发展模式等。
Energy economists have been devoted to developing ways to estimate the hidden carbon emissions in international trade. One of the traditional approaches is that EAI assumes a single-area IO model. Because China’s carbon emission coefficient is higher than the world average, EAI assumes that it overestimates the carbon emissions of imported products. Therefore, this paper improves the method to estimate the hidden carbon emissions in China’s international trade more accurately. The new estimation method is divided into two steps: first, calculate the hidden carbon emissions in international trade by using the EAI hypothesis and the input-output table of 2010; second, amend the EAI assumptions and adjust the import implied carbon emission factors to re-estimate the international trade in China Implied carbon emissions. The results show that domestic carbon emissions should be 5.98 billion tons, 1.414 billion tons lower than the EAI assumption and 2.81 billion tons of carbon emissions in international trade. As a net exporter of carbon emissions, China must not only call for the establishment of a new global responsibility for reducing emissions, but also carry out domestic energy and economic market reforms, such as reforming energy prices and changing the extensive mode of development.