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本文旨在通过对房地产周期及历年供求关系变动进行实证分析,运用周期理论结合供求弹性来说明房地产市场价格的变动。同时将供求弹性当作周期性内在传导机制和均衡价格的外在定位机制来说明价格变动,特别是对处于周期拐点期的价格进行分析预测。本文还在对1997￣2007年十年来北京房地产数据实证分析的基础上,对2008年房地产价格进行预测分析,以期检验与校正本文的方法。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the real estate cycle and historical changes in the relationship between supply and demand empirical analysis, the use of cycle theory combined with supply and demand flexibility to illustrate the real estate market price changes. At the same time, the elasticity of supply and demand is used as the external positioning mechanism of periodic inner conduction mechanism and equilibrium price to illustrate the price changes, especially the price forecast at the inflection period of cycle. Based on the empirical analysis of real estate data in Beijing from 1997 to 2007, this article forecasts and analyzes real estate prices in 2008 in order to test and correct the method of this article.