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以滦河流域相关规划为基准,设置现状延续、经济发展优先和生态保护优先3种土地利用发展情景,应用CLUE-S模型预测滦河流域2030年土地利用;并应用SWAT模型模拟3种情景的水文过程,对比不同发展情景下流域未来水文过程,识别各情景中产沙关键源区。结果表明:2030年,3种情景中流域中游承德市及周围县扩张最为显著;地表径流方面,生态保护优先情景中最小(11.34 mm·a~(-1)),分别为现状延续与经济发展优先情景的47.51%和46.02%;地下径流方面,经济发展优先情景最小(7.94 mm·a~(-1)),分别为现状延续与生态保护优先情景的51.90%和23.26%;产沙方面,生态保护优先情景(0.35×10~5kg·km~(-2)·a~(-1))比其他情景减少约60%;流域水土保持方面,生态保护优先情景效果最好,现状延续情景土壤侵蚀严重,经济发展优先情景水源涵养不理想。研究区可按照现状延续模式继续发展,但应根据产沙空间特征进行分区治理,重点治理流域的产沙关键源区,适当调整土地利用方式。
Based on the relevant planning of Luan River Basin, three scenarios of land use development, such as status quo continuation, economic development priority and ecological protection priority, are set up. The CLUE-S model is used to predict land use in Luanhe River Basin in 2030. SWAT model is used to simulate the three scenarios Hydrological process, comparing the future hydrological processes under different development scenarios to identify the key source areas for sediment production in each scenario. The results show that in the three kinds of scenarios, the expansion of Chengde City and the surrounding counties in the middle reaches of the three kinds of watersheds is the most significant in 2030. In terms of surface runoff, the minimum (11.34 mm · a -1) in ecological protection priority scenarios are the status quo and economic development 47.51% and 46.02% of the priority scenarios respectively. In the aspect of subsurface flow, the priority of economic development is the lowest (7.94 mm · a -1), which is 51.90% and 23.26% respectively of the status quo and the ecological protection priorities; The priority of ecological protection (0.35 × 10 ~ 5kg · km -2 · a -1) was reduced about 60% compared with other scenarios. In terms of soil and water conservation in the basin, the priority of ecological protection was the best, and the status quo continued. Severe erosion, economic development priorities Water conservation is not ideal. The study area may continue to develop in accordance with the current status quo continuation mode. However, zoning control should be carried out according to the spatial characteristics of sediment production. The key source areas for sediment production in the drainage area should be given priority and the land use patterns should be properly adjusted.