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本文利用2005—2015年的季度数据,构建一个包含家庭借贷约束和劳动市场摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察家庭借贷约束和劳动市场摩擦对政府支出乘数的影响。实证结果表明:(1)家庭借贷行为对政府支出冲击的动态效应具有重要影响,忽视家庭借贷行为会导致政府支出乘数的绝对值偏小,但不会改变乘数方向。(2)对设定的不同情形进行比较后发现,家庭借贷约束和劳动市场摩擦处于“双低”情形时政府支出乘数最大,其处于“双高”情形时政府支出乘数最小。(3)高劳动市场摩擦经济体中家庭借贷约束变动对政府支出乘数的影响程度要远高于低劳动市场摩擦经济体。因此,政府应从完善消费金融制度、保持家庭债务可持续增长、加大劳动力市场信息披露以及降低就业摩擦等方面入手,在一定程度上扩大政府支出乘数效应,以期摆脱政府支出乘数困境。
Using quarterly data from 2005 to 2015, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes household borrowing constraints and labor market friction to examine the impact of household borrowing constraints and labor market friction on government expenditure multipliers. The empirical results show that: (1) Family borrowing has an important impact on the dynamic effect of government expenditure shocks. Neglecting family borrowing and borrowing will lead to a small absolute value of government expenditure multiplier but will not change the direction of multiplier. (2) After comparing the different scenarios, we find that the government expenditure multiplier is the largest when the family borrowing and lending constraints and the labor market friction are in the “double low” case, and the government expenditure multiplier when it is in the “double high” case Min. (3) High Labor Market Frictional economy, the family borrowing and lending constraints on the government expenditure multiplier effect is much higher than the low labor market friction economy. Therefore, the government should improve the consumer finance system, maintain the sustainable growth of household debt, increase the information disclosure in the labor market and reduce the employment frictions, and expand the government expenditure multiplier effect to a certain extent, in order to get rid of the predicament of the government expenditure multiplier.