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根据我省近半个世纪森林火灾资料的周期分析，结果表明：①年度火灾次数存在１７ａ为一周期；春季火灾次数有１７ａ，７ａ，１９ａ，２ａ四种周期；秋季火灾次数存在６ａ，１１ａ，４ａ，１５ａ四种周期．②１９８３年以来我省森林火灾逐年减少，用灰色理论的ＧＭ（１，１）时间响应函数来描述和预测是可行的，精度要求比较好．③１９９０年以来我省森林火灾出现历史最低值，这主要是加大了防火设施设备的建设和资金的投入，使森林防火技术措施有了进一步的完善
According to the analysis of forest fire data in the past half a century in our province, the results show that: (1) the annual number of fires is 17a; the number of spring fires is 17a, 7a, 19a and 2a; the number of fires in autumn is 6a and 11a, 4a, 15a four kinds of cycle. ② The forest fires in our province have been decreasing year by year since 1983, and it is feasible to describe and predict GM (1,1) time response function with gray theory, so the accuracy requirements are better. ③ The lowest historical record of forest fires in our province since 1990 is that the construction of fire prevention facilities and equipment and the investment of funds have been stepped up so that the technical measures for forest fire prevention have been further improved