在以前工作的基础上，对套管损坏区浸水域的形状和大小提出一种估算方法。同时根据地应力情况，对穿过浸水域的套管所承受的岩层位移性载荷进行了分析，以该区套管损坏历史和岩层位移性载荷发展的对应关系为依据，结合开发计划，预测未来一段时期内该区可能发生套管损坏的井数。实际使用效果表明，以这种理论和油田大量开发动态资料为基础所建立起来的预测方法，具有良好的准确性，对防止套管损坏工作有重要作用。 On the basis of the previous work, an estimation method is proposed for the shape and size of the immersed area of ​​casing damaged area. At the same time, the displacements of rock strata borne by the casing penetrating the inundated area are analyzed according to the local stress. Based on the corresponding relationship between casing damage history and the development of displacements of the rock in this area, combined with the development plan, the future period The number of wells where casing damage may occur during this period. The practical results show that the prediction method based on this theory and the dynamic development of a large number of oilfields is of good accuracy and plays an important role in preventing casing damage.