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研究了固体推进剂在贮存过程中性能退化对贮存寿命与可靠性的影响,提出了一种基于广义线性模型的固体推进剂贮存寿命与可靠性评估方法.首先结合固体推进剂退化数据的特点,利用位置刻度模型来描述固体推进剂抗拉强度与贮存时间的关系,建立了固体推进剂的贮存寿命模型.然后利用广义线性模型,给出了贮存寿命模型系数的极大似然估计.根据极大似然估计的渐近正态性,利用Fisher信息矩阵,给出了贮存寿命与可靠度近似置信下限.结合算例表明该方法综合利用固体推进剂在不同贮存时间下的性能数据,改善了固体推进剂贮存寿命与可靠性评估精度.
The effect of degradation of solid propellants on storage life and reliability during storage was studied and a method based on generalized linear model for estimating shelf life and reliability of solid propellants was proposed.At first, based on the characteristics of solid propellant degradation data, The position calibration model was used to describe the relationship between the tensile strength of solid propellants and the storage time, and the storage life model of solid propellants was established. Then the maximum likelihood estimation of the storage life model coefficients was given by using the generalized linear model. Using the Fisher information matrix, an approximate lower confidence limit of the storage life and the reliability is given.Experimental results show that this method can comprehensively utilize the performance data of solid propellants at different storage time and improve the Solid propellant storage life and reliability assessment accuracy.