基于2006~2013年间RCEP区域内国家的面板数据构建贸易引力模型,对印度加入RCEP后进出口贸易流量的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,在RCEP区域范围内,关税作为一种传统的贸易政策工具,对印度对外贸易的影响并不明显;国家的经济规模、国家间人均收支差距、贸易距离以及本国的人力资源要素禀赋则对印度对外贸易影响显著。在区域经济一体化与贸易自由化趋势不可逆转的形势下,印度对内应推动产业结构转型、提高国内人均收入以及教育模式的改革,对外应通过“重点市场-重点领域”形成梯队化的贸易伙伴,仍有可能保证贸易利益不受损害以及对外贸易的可持续发展。 Based on the panel data of the countries in the RCEP region from 2006 to 2013, a trade gravity model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors of the import and export trade flows after India joined RCEP. The results show that within the RCEP region, tariffs, as a traditional trade policy tool, have no obvious effect on India’s foreign trade. The country’s economic scale, per capita income and expenditure gap among nations, trade distance and its human resource endowments The impact on India’s foreign trade is significant. Under the irreversible trend of regional economic integration and trade liberalization, India should internally push forward the transformation of its industrial structure and raise the domestic average per capita income as well as the reform of its education mode. In the meantime, India should form an echelon through “key markets - key areas” It is still possible for our trading partners to ensure that their trade interests are not compromised and that their foreign trade is sustainable.