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在实时洪水预报调度中,洪水预报误差的统计特性和误差置信限对调度风险的确定影响较大.为此,以三花间伊河卢氏流域为例研究了洪水预报误差的统计特性和误差置信限问题.结果表明,洪水预报误差通常具有有偏概率分布的特点,用现行水情预报精度标准及误差置信限评定方法对其进行评定时可能会出现两种不同的结果,但误差置信限评定方法比现行水情预报精度标准更为严格.
In the real-time flood forecasting and dispatching, the statistical characteristics of flood forecasting errors and the error confidence limits have a great influence on the determination of dispatch risk.Therefore, the statistical characteristics and error of flood forecasting errors are studied with the example of Lushi River, Confidence limit problem. The results show that flood forecasting error usually has the characteristic of unbiased probability distribution. Two different results may be obtained when using the current hydrological forecast precision standard and the error confidence limit assessment method, but the error confidence limits The assessment method is more strict than the current hydrological forecast accuracy standard.