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目的以1985-2005年全国汉族中小学生视力不良率为基础,预测2010-2020年我国中小学生各群体视力不良率,探求中小学生视力不良的发展趋势。方法分城男、城女、乡男、乡女4个群体对我国7～18岁各年龄段中小学生视力不良率建立灰色预测模型,编制相应MATLAB下的灰色预测模型程序进行预测研究。结果2005-2020年所有汉族中小学生人群视力不良检出率都继续上升,且这一人群的视力不良检出率呈农村化和低龄化趋势;2020年城男、城女、乡男、乡女7～18岁均值预测值分别为64.88%,76.08%,46.88%,60.04%,但增速较1985-2005年有所放缓。结论应加强中小学生视力不良的预防工作,把“阳光体育运动”落到实处,遏制视力不良率快速增长趋势,尤其是重点遏制视力不良低龄化、农村化现象。
Objective To predict the rate of poor eyesight among primary and secondary school students in China from 2010 to 2020 based on the rate of poor eyesight among primary and middle school students in Han nationality from 1985 to 2005 and to explore the developing trend of poor eyesight among primary and middle school students. Methods Four groups including male, female, male and female in urban area were used to establish gray prediction model for the rate of poor eyesight among primary and secondary school students aged 7-18 in our country. The gray prediction model program was compiled and the prediction was studied. Results In 2005-2020, the detection rate of poor eyesight of all Han primary and secondary school students continued to rise, and the detection rate of poor eyesight in this population was the trend of ruralization and the younger age. In 2020, urban men, urban women, rural men and women The average forecast of 7-18 years old was 64.88%, 76.08%, 46.88% and 60.04% respectively, but the growth rate slowed down from 1985 to 2005. Conclusion The prevention of poor eyesight among primary and secondary school students should be strengthened and the “Sunshine Sports Campaign” should be implemented to curb the rapid growth of poor eyesight rate. In particular, the focus should be on curbing the phenomenon of low-aged and rural people with poor eyesight.