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水库运行期间库岸再造预测是工程地质领域的重要和热门研究课题之一。基于卡丘金法采用半经验性、半定量的模式,简化了水文地质条件的影响,并忽略了波浪对库岸的掏蚀作用等缺陷,针对土质岸坡,提出了基于浪蚀龛和土体临界高度的卡丘金修正法;建立了库岸再造稳定时限估算方法;并采用极限平衡法、卡丘金法和构建的土质岸坡再造预测方法对三峡库区奉节白马港岸坡进行了塌岸预测。计算结果表明,修正的卡丘金法的计算结果与其他两种预测方法相比偏小,但偏差在8.05 m以内,并通过现阶段库岸地质调查表明,预测结果比较符合实情。研究成果对库岸区域土地资源开发利用及防灾减灾具有积极意义。
Reservoir bank rebuilding forecast during reservoir operation is one of the important and hot research topics in engineering geology. The semi-empirical and semi-quantitative model based on the Kalukin method simplifies the influence of hydrogeological conditions and neglects the wave erosion effect on the bank floor. In view of the soil bank, A method of estimating the stability of reservoir bank rebuilding was established. The method of limit equilibrium method, kanqin gold method and soil bank slope rebuilding prediction method were used to predict the bank collapse of Fengjie white beach in the Three Gorges reservoir area. The calculated results show that the calculated Kaluqin method is smaller than the other two methods, but the deviation is within 8.05 m. According to the current reservoir bank geological survey, the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual conditions. The research results have positive significance to the development and utilization of land resources and disaster prevention and reduction in the bank area.