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根据项目所在地区的经济发展规划,参照过往项目经济评价的方法与参数,在考虑项目主要投入物影子价格影响和经济费用调整的的前提下,采用定量计算和定性分析相结合的方法,对拟建高速公路经济效益进行综合经济评价,得到国民经济敏感性分析结果,预测项目抗风险能力的强弱。同时,借助国民经济评价分析结果,结合交通量预测和工程建设规模等研究情况,计算项目的费用和效益,对拟建项目的财务状况和贷款偿还能力进行评价,得到项目财务敏感性分析结果,预测项目财务状况的可行性。结合国民经济敏感性分析和财务敏感性分析的综合评价结论可以为项目的最终决策提供科学的参考依据,其研究方法具有较强的适用性。
According to the economic development plan of the project area and the methods and parameters of the economic evaluation of the past projects, taking into consideration of the impact of the shadow price of the main inputs of the project and the adjustment of the economic costs, a quantitative method and a qualitative analysis method are used to analyze the proposed plan To build a comprehensive economic evaluation of the economic benefits of the highway, the results of the sensitivity analysis of the national economy, predict the project’s ability to resist risks strength. At the same time, with the help of the results of national economic evaluation and analysis, combined with the research on traffic volume forecast and construction scale, the project cost and benefit are calculated and the financial status and loan repayment ability of the proposed project are evaluated. The financial sensitivity analysis result of the project is obtained, Predict project’s financial viability. Combined with the national economic sensitivity analysis and financial sensitivity analysis of the comprehensive evaluation of the conclusions of the project for the final decision-making to provide a scientific basis for reference, its research methods have strong applicability.