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针对突发事件社交网络舆情扩散特征,考虑政府及公众媒体对社交网络舆情参与者产生的影响,建立一种突发事件社交网络舆情扩散模型。定义并分析突发事件社交网络舆情扩散趋势的转折点,由舆情扩散模型推导出度量突发事件社交网络舆情扩散趋势的测度,同时给出并证明在不同舆情扩散测度下转折点的存在性及舆情扩散趋势。根据舆情扩散测度给出一种最优控制的目标函数,利用舆情扩散测度的关键因素,推导出使目标函数值最小的舆情扩散控制方法。通过数值模拟计算,说明模型及控制方法的有效性和实用性。
In view of the characteristics of public opinion diffusion in social network of emergencies and considering the influence of government and public media on the public opinion participants in social networks, a diffusion model of social public opinion in emergencies is established. This paper defines and analyzes the turning point of public opinion diffusion of social network in emergencies and deduces the measure of public opinion diffusion of social network by means of public opinion diffusion model. At the same time, it presents and proves the existence of the turning point and the spread of public opinion under the different public opinion diffusion measures trend. According to the measure of public opinion diffusion, an objective function of optimal control is given. Based on the key factors of public opinion measure, a diffusion control method of public opinion which minimizes the objective function is deduced. Through the numerical simulation, the effectiveness and practicability of the model and control method are illustrated.