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自由飞行是解决空中交通拥挤的一种有效方式,所以对自由飞行环境下碰撞风险进行研究尤为重要。考虑通信导航与监视(CNS)系统性能、人为因素和防撞系统性能对飞行碰撞的影响,利用随机微分方程方法建立自由飞行下碰撞风险模型。引入以上3种随机因素过程强度的模糊集,最后建立微分方程的Runge-Kutta快速解法。算例结果表明,碰撞概率的值随最小安全距离的增大而减小,验证了模型的可行性。
Free flight is an effective way to solve the problem of air traffic congestion. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the risk of collision under free flight environment. Considering the influence of communication navigation and surveillance (CNS) system performance, man-made factors and collision avoidance system performance on flight collision, the stochastic differential equation method is used to establish the collision risk model in free flight. The fuzzy sets of the process intensities of the above three kinds of random factors are introduced. Finally, the Runge-Kutta fast method of differential equations is established. The results show that the probability of collision decreases with the increase of the minimum safety distance, which verifies the feasibility of the model.