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目的应用地理信息系统(GIS)分析2013—2015年宁波市手足口病的空间分布模式和空间聚集性,为防制手足口病提供依据。方法根据宁波市2013—2015年各乡镇/街道手足口病发病资料建立数据库,使用Arc GIS 10.2软件与宁波市乡镇界的矢量地图进行关联,对各年份手足口病疫情进行空间显示和空间自相关分析。结果 2013—2015年宁波市手足口病发病存在空间聚集性(全局Moran’s I值分别为0.356、0.192和0.131,均P<0.01)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,2013年手足口病发病“热点”区域主要集中在宁波主城区的市郊区域以及宁海县、象山县的主城区;2014和2015年手足口病的空间分布和局部自相关分析结果总体一致,“热点”区域集中在余姚市和宁海县的主城区以及镇海、北仑和鄞州的接壤城郊区域。结论宁波市手足口病具有明显的空间聚集性,存在发病“热点”区域,相关部门应针对重点区域采取相应的防控措施。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution pattern and spatial aggregation of hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo City from 2013 to 2015 by using geographic information system (GIS) to provide evidence for the prevention of HFMD. Methods According to the incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease in each township / street from 2013 to 2015 in Ningbo City, a database was constructed using ArcGIS 10.2 software and the vector map of towns and villages in Ningbo City. Spatial display and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results There was spatial clustering of hand-foot-mouth disease in Ningbo city between 2013 and 2015 (global Moran’s I values were 0.356, 0.192 and 0.131, all P <0.01). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD in 2013 mainly concentrated in the suburbs of main city of Ningbo and the main urban areas of Ninghai and Xiangshan counties. The spatial distribution of HFMD in 2014 and 2015 and Local autocorrelation analysis results are generally consistent, “hot spot ” area concentrated in the main city of Yuyao and Ninghai County and the suburbs of Zhenhai, Beilun and Yinzhou border. Conclusion Hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo has obvious spatial agglomeration, and there is a “hot spot” in the disease area. Relevant departments should take corresponding prevention and control measures in key areas.