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从修正标准货币效用模型(MIU)入手,从理论上说明,通胀对中等收入国家家庭福利会造成严重影响,进而提出理论假设:通胀所造成的家庭福利损失将严重影响中等收入国家宏观经济的发展,进而推动相关国家陷入“中等收入陷阱”。而后,又通过FGLS、差分GMM以及系统GMM方法对陷入“中等收入陷阱”的典型国家自进入中等收入以来的面板数据进行回归分析。分析结果表明:在控制了基础设施、债务水平、技术创新以及储蓄率的前提下,通胀对上述国家人均GDP增长率有显著的负向影响。因此,应该加强对通胀的调控,以确保我国顺利进入到高收入国家的行列。
Starting with the revision of the standard monetary utility model (MIU), it is theoretically proved that inflation will have a serious impact on family welfare in middle-income countries, and then put forward the theoretical hypothesis that the loss of family welfare caused by inflation will seriously affect the macroeconomic development of middle-income countries , And then promote the relevant countries into a “middle income trap.” Then, the regression analysis of the panel data from the typical middle-income countries into the “middle income trap” by FGLS, differential GMM and system GMM methods was conducted. The results of the analysis show that inflation has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of per capita GDP of the above countries under the premise of controlling infrastructures, debt levels, technological innovation and savings rates. Therefore, we should strengthen the regulation and control of inflation so as to ensure the smooth entry of our country into the ranks of high-income countries.