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2005年的国际金融市场走势跌宕起伏,其中债券市场由美国市场主导,基本上是区间波动走势,决定市场走势的因素首先是美国经济表现稳健,欧、日经济相形见绌,其次是美国继续处在升息周期中,但接近尾声;再次由于全球储蓄过剩等因素影响,导致债券市场的表现与以往升息周期迥异。进入年底,世界经济走势又开始变得扑朔迷离,引致经济学家们对2006年的经济走势、利率走势和金融市场的判断莫衷一是,分歧严重。总体而言,风险加大。
The trend of international financial market in 2005 is ups and downs. The bond market is dominated by the U.S. market and is basically a trend of fluctuating range. The factors that determine the market trend are first, the steady U.S. economy, the downturn of the European and Japanese economies, followed by the United States Interest rate cycle, but nearing completion; once again due to global savings and other factors, resulting in bond market performance and interest rates in the past cycle is very different. By the end of the year, the trend of the world economy has begun to become complicated and confusing, causing economists to disagree about the economic trend, interest rate trend and financial market in 2006 with serious differences. In general, the risks increase.