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在水库下游防护断面遭遇超标准洪水或水库遭遇超标准洪水按规划调度原则泄量将超过下游防护断面安全泄量时，提出了一种水库减免下游洪灾损失的防洪实时风险调度模型，并提出了水库防洪允许极限风险率确定的原则，可供实时选择水库泄量时使用，为决策者提供有依据的信息。还举了一应用算例，应用效果较好。
When the protection section of the lower reaches of the reservoir encounters the exceeding standard flood or the reservoir encounters the exceeding standard flood, the flood discharge will exceed the discharge of the downstream protection section according to the principle of planning and dispatch, a flood control real-time risk reduction model of flood damage reduction and reduction for downstream reaches is proposed The principle of allowing flood risk for flood control in reservoirs can be used to select reservoir discharges in real time and provide informed information to policymakers. Also cited an application example, the application effect is better.