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分析了近期黄河水沙变化 ,采用门限回归、谐波分析等模型预测了小浪底水库初期运用 15年的黄河天然水沙情况及入库水沙条件。预估 15年平均入库水量 3 10亿m3 ,其中前 5年约 3 60亿m3 、后 10年约 2 90亿m3 ;15年平均入库沙量约为 9亿t ,前 5年与后 10年均值接近。
The changes of water and sediment in the Yellow River were analyzed. The natural water and sediment of the Yellow River and the conditions of water and sediment storage in the initial stage of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir for 15 years were predicted by the threshold regression and harmonic analysis. The estimated 15-year average storage volume is 31 billion m3, of which about 36 billion m3 in the first 5 years and 29 billion m3 in the next 10 years. The average 15-year storage volume is about 900 million tons, 10-year average close to.