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自进入石油时代以来,世界各国经济便开始受到油价波动的巨大挑战。本文的研究表明:1965年-2000年期间,国际油价的波动始终带有明显的政治倾向,而主导这一时期油价波动的是发达国家与石油输出组织国家。发生于1973年的中东十月战争、1979年的伊朗革命和1990年的伊拉克入侵科威特正是引发这一时期原油价格大幅上升的三次关键事件。进入21世纪后,国际油价变动开始从政治主导指向转变为经济主导指向,传统的出口与进口二元国际市场结构也被石油出口国、老牌与新兴石油进口国的“三足鼎立”格局所取代,从而引发了一场新的市场利益博弈。1965年-2000年期间,全球石油消费需求增长的近70%来自老牌石油进口国。然而自2001年以来,全球石油消费需求增长的95%则自新兴石油进口国。与此同时,老牌石油进口国需求下降国家数量也从2003年不足10个上升至2008年的17个。随着国际石油市场博弈程度和全球经济发展环境的变化,投机行为最终占据了油价机制的主导地位。其结果造成现行油价高出正常油价1~2倍以上,标志着国际油价进入了高风险期。在未来相当长时期内,石油输出国、老牌与新兴石油进口国的市场格局不会发生根本性变化。投机成分主导下的风险机制将使世界油价继续处在一个高风险阶段。所不同者,经历了此次全球金融危机后,石油市场的消费格局将发生相应变化。此种情况下,国际油价很可能呈现一个相对稳定状态。据此得出的判断是:未来国际油价有可能保持在100美元/桶的范围(按2008年价格计算),其价格变幅大体保持在(80~120)美元/桶之间。作为世界上最大的新兴石油进口国,中国应认真对待这一种变化。
Since entering the oil era, the economies of various countries in the world have begun to be challenged by fluctuations in oil prices. The research in this paper shows that between 1965 and 2000, the fluctuation of international oil price always has obvious political tendency. The fluctuation of oil price in this period is dominated by developed countries and OECD countries. The October Middle East war of 1973, the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the Kuwaiti invasion of Iraq in 1990 were precisely the three key events that triggered a sharp rise in crude oil prices during this period. Since the 21st century, the international oil price changes have shifted from a political dominant point to an economic dominant point. The traditional export and import binary international market structure has also been replaced by the “tripartite confrontation” pattern among petroleum exporting countries, veteran and emerging oil importing countries , Triggering a new game of market interest. From 1965 to 2000, nearly 70% of the growth in global oil consumption demand came from veteran oil importers. However, since 2001, 95% of the growth in global oil consumption demand has come from emerging oil importers. In the meantime, the number of countries with declining oil demand in established oil-importing countries also rose from less than 10 in 2003 to 17 in 2008. With the degree of gaming in the international oil market and changes in the global economic development environment, speculation ultimately dominates the oil price mechanism. As a result, the current oil price is 1 to 2 times higher than the normal oil price, which indicates that the international oil price has entered into a high-risk period. In a long period of time, there will be no fundamental changes in the market structure of oil-exporting countries, veteran and emerging oil importing countries. The risk mechanism dominated by speculative components will keep the world oil price at a high risk stage. The difference is that after experiencing the global financial crisis, the consumption pattern in the oil market will change accordingly. Under such circumstances, the international oil price is likely to show a relatively steady state. According to this judgment, the future international oil prices are likely to remain in the range of 100 US dollars / barrel (at 2008 prices), the price changes generally maintained at (80 to 120) US dollars / barrel. As the largest emerging oil importer in the world, China should take this change seriously.