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为体现出行者路径选择行为,准确评价路网行程时间可靠性,采用行程时间均值和行程时间均方差的加权和定义广义出行费用,以不同的加权系数反映出行者对待风险的态度。从路段层面定义行程时间可靠性,以广义出行费用最小化为目标构建SUE模型,建立基于广义出行费用的路网行程时间可靠性模型。结合模型特点,给出Monte Carlo仿真和交通规划模型相结合的求解算法。并在一个小型测试路网上进行了验证,结果表明:出行者对待风险的不同态度对行程时间可靠性具有明显的影响,保守型出行者将使路网行程时间可靠性有所提高;所建分配模型能够较真实地反映出行者的路径选择行为,使行程时间可靠性分析更加准确。
In order to reflect the path selection behavior of travelers and accurately evaluate the reliability of road network travel time, the generalized travel expenses are defined by the weighted sum of travel time mean and travel time variance, and reflect the attitude of the travelers to the risks with different weighting coefficients. The reliability of travel time is defined from the road segment. The SUE model is constructed with the goal of minimizing the travel expense in general and the reliability model of travel time based on general travel cost is established. Combining with the characteristics of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation and traffic planning model are combined to solve the algorithm. And verified on a small test road network. The results show that: different attitudes toward travelers have a significant impact on the reliability of travel time, and the conservative travelers will increase the reliability of the travel time of the road network; The model can more accurately reflect the traveler’s route selection behavior and make the reliability analysis of travel time more accurate.