在套期保值交易中,基差的变动方向和大小直接决定了套期保值策略的效果。基差所反映的现货与期货价格的差额波动小于现货价格及期货价格本身的波动,从而可以通过更小的基差风险取代现货市场上的价格风险,使人们的收益和成本得到更好的控制。本文分析并对比了玉米期货与现货价格,得出了基差在一定范围内具有规律性的特点;在此基础上通过构建BP神经网络模型,对大连玉米期货市场的基差进行了较为准确的理论预测,为套期保值者做出正确的决策提供了有价值的参考。 In the hedging transaction, the direction and size of the change of the base difference directly determine the effect of the hedging strategy. The fluctuation of the difference between the spot price and the futures price reflected in the basis difference is less than the fluctuation of the spot price and the futures price itself so that the price risk on the spot market can be replaced by a smaller basis risk and the benefits and costs can be better controlled . This paper analyzes and compares the corn futures and the spot price, obtains the base difference has the regularity within a certain range of characteristics. On this basis, by building a BP neural network model, Dalian corn futures market basis for a more accurate Theoretical prediction provides a valuable reference for hedgers to make correct decisions.