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2009年11月,中国国务院宣布到2020年,在2005年的基础之上将碳排放强度,即单位GDP二氧化碳排放量降低40%～45%。这一目标能否达成对于中国以及全球抵御气候变化都将产生深刻影响。分析我国能源消耗和经济发展的历史和现状,系统梳理到目前为止我国所制定和实施的能源政策,并结合情景分析预测了我国能否达到既定的碳排放强度削减目标。结果表明,我国实现减排目标是乐观的,但仍需要有针对性的政策导向。最后根据以上分析,对我国下一阶段的能源消耗和经济发展政策提出了相应建议,即加大科技支出,继续淘汰落后产能,推动先进生产技术应用;加大产业结构调整力度,大力发展第三产业;推动能源价格市场化进程。
In November 2009, the State Council of China announced that by 2020, carbon intensity will be reduced by 40% to 45% of its carbon intensity per unit of GDP on a 2005 basis. Whether this goal can be achieved will have a profound impact on China and the global fight against climate change. Analyze the history and present situation of energy consumption and economic development in our country, sort out the energy policies formulated and implemented in our country systematically, and forecast the target of reducing the intensity of carbon emission in our country with the scenario analysis. The results show that our goal of achieving emission reduction is optimistic, but we still need targeted policy guidance. Finally, based on the above analysis, we put forward corresponding suggestions on our country’s energy consumption and economic development policies in the next stage. That is, we increase spending on science and technology, continue to eliminate backward production capacity and promote the application of advanced production technologies. We will intensify the adjustment of industrial structure and vigorously develop the third Industry; promoting the marketization of energy prices.