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探讨农业碳排放与经济增长之间的关系对于促进我国农业环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的研究具有十分重要的意义。文章选用1998-2012年我国农业人均二氧化碳排放量与人均国民生产总值作为研究对象,通过Eviews 6.0建立时间序列模型,从其相关关系出发进行回归分析与检验,结果表明:我国农业碳排放与经济增长之间符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。当前条件下,随着经济的发展,我国农业生产中二氧化碳的排放量会随着经济增长先上升后缓解,当人均GDP为27 472元时达到拐点,目前仍处于倒“U”型的左侧。因此,我国在加快农业现代化进程的同时也应该采取切实有效的措施,在推动经济发展中注重环境保护。
To explore the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth is of great significance to promote the study of EKC in China. This paper chooses the agricultural per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita gross national product (GNP) of China from 1998 to 2012 as the research object, establishes the time series model through Eviews 6.0, and carries out the regression analysis and test from the correlation. The results show that the agricultural carbon emissions and the economy The growth accords with the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. Under the current conditions, with the development of economy, the emission of carbon dioxide in agricultural production in our country will be eased first after the economic growth. When the per capita GDP reaches 27 472 yuan, it will reach the inflection point and is still in the “U” shape Left side. Therefore, while accelerating the process of agricultural modernization in our country, we should also take effective measures to focus on environmental protection in promoting economic development.