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在1984年以前的3年里,加州已在洛杉矶都会区加速实施防震计划。考虑到沿圣安德烈斯断层南段大地震潜在的危险性,这一努力促进了大范围和长期的预测工作。在这些防震活动中包括地方管辖区对短期地震预报发布的反应。本文综述这些防震计划活动并提供加州有关地震预报的公共政策研究的总的看法,也注意到预报能力的科学估计是怎样影响加州的防震计划的。
In the three years prior to 1984, California accelerated its earthquake-proof program in the Los Angeles metro area. Taking into account the potential danger along the Great Seismic Sector in the southern section of the San Andrés Fault, this effort has contributed to a larger and longer-term projection. Included in these earthquake resistance activities is the response of local jurisdictions to the release of short-term earthquake forecasts. This article reviews these earthquake program activities and provides a general view of California’s public policy research on earthquake prediction. It also notes how scientific estimates of forecasting ability impact California’s earthquake-resistant programs.