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在一个经济社会中,宏观经济总量发生周期性的波动,是一种普遍的现象.自重商主义时代以来,世界各国的经济学家们已提出了近百种经济周期理论.不同的学派在不同的时期对经济周期问题进行了多种不同角度的探讨,构成了西方经济学理论中一个颇有特色的组成部分.在西方经济学的研究中,经济周期理论变革和创新十分明显,从观察计量方法到抽象的理论分析,到了当代,甚至将“突变论”、“耗散结构理论”和“协同论”等理论工具都借用到周期理论的分析中.这些五花八门的经济周期理论研究的目的只有一个,即解释经济周期性波动发生的原因,从而为解决经济危机寻找治疗的药方.经济周期理论在经历了20世纪30年代初
In an economy and society, it is a common phenomenon that the macroeconomic aggregate fluctuates periodically, and economists from all over the world have proposed nearly a hundred kinds of economic cycle theory since the period of mercantilism. In different periods, the study of the economic cycle issues from different perspectives constitutes a quite distinctive part of the Western economic theory.In the study of western economics, the change and innovation of the economic cycle theory is very obvious, from the observation Measurement methods to abstract theoretical analysis, to the present, even the theory of “mutation”, “dissipative structure theory” and “Synergies” are borrowed into the analysis of the cycle theory.The purpose of these various economic cycle theory research There is only one explanation for the causes of cyclical fluctuations in the economy so as to find a remedy for the economic crisis.The theory of the economic cycle has undergone a great development in the early 1930s