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本文以上海延安高架快速路为典型研究对象,建立有效的动态仿真模型对快速道路交通运行状况进行实时分析及短期预测、研究以延安高架路各匝道口为出行起讫点,以滚动式动态OD预测法生成动态OD矩阵;将生成的OD分配到路网上,形成对道路交通运行状况的实时模拟,及路径走行时间的短期预测。将生成的实时及预测数据导入AIMSUN快速路交通运行状况实时模型进行仿真模拟,通过反复校核,最终生成能够实时准确进行分析预测的仿真模型。
In this paper, Shanghai Yan’an Elevated Expressway is taken as the typical research object, an effective dynamic simulation model is established to analyze and forecast short-term the expressway traffic operation status in real time. Taking the ramp of Yan’an Elevated Road as departure and departure points, Generate a dynamic OD matrix; and distribute the generated OD to the road network to form a real-time simulation of the road traffic condition and short-term prediction of the travel time of the route. The real-time and forecast data generated are imported into the AIMSUN real-time traffic traffic real-time model for simulation. Through repeated check-ups, simulation models are generated which can be accurately predicted in real time.