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建立新疆手足口病发病率的季节求和自回归-移动平均模型(Seasonal AutoregressiveIntegrated Moving Average Model,SARIMA),探讨采用SARIMA模型预测手足口病发病趋势的可行性和实用性.利用R统计软件基于新疆2006-2012手足口病月发病率数据建立SARIMA模型,拟合2012年手足口病各月发病率数据,并预测了2013年手足口病月发病率.经过序列平稳化、模型识别以及模型诊断,SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)_(12)能较好地拟合既往时间段的发病率,且预测值符合新疆手足口病实际发病率的波动趋势.SARIMA模型能够有效地预测手足口病发病趋势,对预警、防控具有积极指导意义.
To establish the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) of morbidity of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xinjiang and discuss the feasibility and practicability of predicting the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease using SARIMA model.Using R statistical software based on Xinjiang Autonomous Region 2006-2012 SARIMA model was established based on monthly incidence rate of HFMD and the monthly incidence of HFMD in 2012 was fitted and the monthly incidence of HFMD was predicted in 2013. After sequence stabilization, model identification and model diagnosis, SARIMA (1,0,1) (0,1,0) _ (12) can well fit the incidence of previous time period, and the predicted value is consistent with the trend of fluctuation of actual incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang.ARIMA model can Effective prediction of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease trends, early warning, prevention and control has a positive guiding significance.