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文章论述了灰色预测模型在公路货运量预测中的应用技术、方法与程序。该方法利用了累加生成手段和微分方程描述的灰色模型,与目前常规货运量预测理论和模型相比,可有效处理小样本、贫信息的不确定系统,并在一定预测时段内具有良好的预测精度和实用性。应用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型对1999-2010年山东省公路货运量进行分析和研究,通过运行预测模型并与原历史数据进行比较,确认预测模型准确度较高;最后以此预测模型对山东省2012—2017年的公路货运量进行了预测。
The paper discusses the application of gray forecasting model in highway freight volume forecasting technology, methods and procedures. This method uses the gray model described by the cumulative generation method and the differential equation. Compared with the current theory and model of conventional freight forecasting, this method can effectively deal with the uncertain system of small samples and poor information and has a good prediction in a certain forecasting period Accuracy and practicality. The GM (1,1) model in gray system was used to analyze and study the highway freight volume in Shandong Province during 1999-2010. The forecasting model was operated and compared with the historical data to confirm the accuracy of the forecasting model. Finally, The forecasting model predicts the road freight volume of Shandong Province from 2012 to 2017.