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自2014年起热带太平洋经历了持续的增暖现象,并在2015年发生了一次强厄尔尼诺(El Nio)事件.这次事件的一个显著特征是:2014~2015年间,赤道中东太平洋海区次表层温度正异常呈马蹄型形态并持续存在.本文结合观测资料和中等复杂程度的海洋模式模拟,对2014~2015年间海表温度(SST)异常的演变进行分析,重点探讨2015年El Nio事件所涉及的海洋过程及其与SST异常演变间的关系,包括海洋边界处赤道波动(由海表高度(SL)信号表示)的传播和反射相关的遥影响作用、次表层正热力异常的局地效应等.结果表明,2014~2015年持续性的次表层的热力正异常对赤道太平洋SST暖异常的维持起到了重要作用.对SST的热收支分析揭示了在2014~2015年SST异常演变中起主导作用的过程.这些分析加深了对2015年El Nio事件相关过程的理解及当前ENSO理论在多大程度上能解释这次事件的认知.
The tropical Pacific has experienced a sustained warming since 2014 and a strong El Nio incident took place in 2015. One notable feature of this incident is that in the equatorial Middle East and Pacific Ocean from 2014 to 2015 The surface temperature anomaly is horseshoe-shaped and persists.This paper analyzes the evolution of SST anomaly from 2014 to 2015 based on the observed data and the medium-complexity ocean model simulation, with a focus on the 2015 El Nio The ocean processes involved in the event and their relationship to the anomalous evolution of the SST include the effects of teleconnection and reflection associated with equatorial fluctuations (represented by the sea surface height (SL) signal) at the ocean boundary, the Bureau of Subsurface Positive Thermal Anomalies Etc. The results show that the persistent subsurface positive thermodynamic anomalies played an important role in maintaining the anomalous SST over the equatorial Pacific from 2014 to 2015. The analysis of the heat balance of SST revealed the evolution of SST anomalies from 2014 to 2015 Which have deepened the understanding of the processes related to El Nio events in 2015 and the extent to which the current ENSO theory can explain the events.