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本文应用时变经济“自然率”条件下的新凯恩斯模型对我国总供给曲线进行估计,并且对其动态性进行实证分析。研究结果表明,总供给曲线所描述的通货膨胀率与产出缺口变动关系与我国宏观经济态势的发展相吻合;产出缺口是通货膨胀率变动的Granger原因,并且产出缺口对通货膨胀率的影响具有时变性和非对称性特征;总供给曲线作用下的月度环比和同比通货膨胀率适度水平分别近似为0.35%和4.28%。
In this paper, the new Keynesian model under the condition of time-varying economy and “natural rate” is used to estimate the total supply curve in China, and its dynamic analysis is carried out. The results show that the relationship between inflation rate and output gap change described by the total supply curve is in line with the development of macroeconomic situation in our country. The output gap is the Granger cause of the inflation rate change, and the output gap to the inflation rate The effects are time-varying and asymmetric. The monthly ring ratio and the modest year-on-year inflation rate under the overall supply curve are approximately 0.35% and 4.28%, respectively.