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本世纪头10年世界经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移,转向东亚—南亚弧形地带,其中中国和印度成为领跑者,这一趋势将至少持续到本世纪30年代。中国和印度占世界GDP的份额分别从2000年的3.72%和1.49%上升到2010年的9.34%和2.44%。2000～2010年间世界能源消费总量年均增长率为2.67%,而中国和印度则分别为11.54%和5.18%。2001～2010年间,北美、日本的石油进口量呈下降趋势,欧洲呈微弱增长态势;而同期中国石油进口量年均增长率达16.29%,印度2000～2009年间石油进口量年均增长率为6.32%。2000～2010年间世界煤炭消费量年均增长率为4.84%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的30%;而中国10年间煤炭消费量的年均增长率为13.21%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的70.3%。中国能源消费总量增长过快、能源构成不合理的问题相当突出,必须加大对能源消费总量的控制,大力调整能源结构,坚决扭转煤炭占能源构成比例持续升高的局面。与经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移相应的是中美两国战略思维的变化。美国战略重点东移、“重返亚洲”的目的是遏制中国,这不过是冷战时期围堵的老思维;但美国同时又必须与中国合作,双方的相互渗透、相互依存已经达到相当的程度。而中国必须看到国内外经济形势的变化,形成新的战略思维,改变发展方式,坚定不移地以改革促稳定,以结构调整保发展。
In the first decade of this century, the focus of world economic growth and energy consumption growth shifted eastward toward the arc of the East Asia-South Asia. China and India became the forerunners, a trend that will continue until at least the 1930s. The share of China and India in world GDP rose from 3.72% and 1.49% in 2000 to 9.34% and 2.44% in 2010 respectively. The average annual growth rate of world energy consumption was 2.67% between 2000 and 2010, while that of China and India was 11.54% and 5.18% respectively. From 2001 to 2010, oil imports of North America and Japan showed a downward trend, while Europe showed a slight growth. In the same period, the annual growth rate of China’s oil imports reached 16.29%. India’s average annual oil import volume from 2000 to 2009 was 6.32 %. The average annual growth rate of coal consumption in the world was 4.84% between 2000 and 2010, while coal accounted for 30% of basic energy in 2010; while the average annual growth rate of coal consumption in China was 13.21% in 10 years and 70.3% of basic energy in 2010 %. China’s total energy consumption growth is too fast. The problem of irrational energy composition is quite prominent. We must increase control over the total energy consumption, vigorously readjust the energy structure and resolutely reverse the situation where the proportion of coal in the energy mix continues to rise. Corresponding to the eastward shift in the focus of economic growth and energy consumption growth, the strategic thinking of China and the United States has changed. The purpose of the United States to move eastward and the goal of “returning to Asia” is to contain China. This is but an old thinking about containment in the Cold War era. However, at the same time, the United States must cooperate with China and mutual penetration and interdependence have reached a considerable level degree. However, China must see the changes in the economic situation at home and abroad, form a new strategic thinking, change its mode of development, unswervingly promote stability through reform, and ensure its development through restructuring.